Milano Cortina 2026: Seven big Para ice hockey questions

We’ve previously evaluated players as professional scouts do; we’ve analysed schedules with war room focus, and now, days away from the opening face-off, we discuss the seven big questions that will, and can only be, answered on the ice as the puck drops in Italy at the Milano Cortina 2026 Paralympic Winter Games.

1.    How do the United States combat the quiet drift of complacency?

The first question is hidden in plain sight, concealing itself behind their four consecutive Paralympic victories and their four of the last five world titles. Simply put, how do the USA safeguard against laxity, prevent the quiet erosion of hunger?

Laurels can be a comfortable place to rest, especially after such a dominant performance at the 2025 World Championships, the last international showdown prior to the Winter Paralympics. 

The lead-up to that competition, however, was utterly different. The 2024 contest ended with Team Canada pulling off an upset triumph on their home soil, leaving a mark which in turn fuelled the USA’s fire for redemption, even more so with the 2025 event in the home of the brave. The stars and stripes shone brightly throughout the competition, so much so that following its conclusion, even the Canadians were forced to speak openly about it. 

“That’s the best game I’ve seen the United States play in a long time, and it’s just unfortunate that it came today against us,” Canadian head coach Russ Herrington said. “They didn’t give us any space to breathe, get our game going or impose our will at all. That’s a team that’s been sitting on a sour feeling for a year and two weeks and waiting for their chance to get us back, and that’s as determined and relentless as I’ve seen them play.”

High praise.

But fast forward to March of 2026, after the 2025 medals have long been distributed and the anthems sung, and the sting from the disappointment of 2024 has now all but faded.

It isn’t to say the red, white, and blue shouldn’t be confident in their abilities or that their confidence is unearned, far from it. They skate into this competition with the number one ranking for a reason. But history has demonstrated time and again what happens when a great team begins to believe its own invincibility. 

It is a melancholy truth that hubris has a way of creeping in and embedding itself before you realize it’s too late, an uninvited guest who somehow becomes an unauthorized tenant. Indeed, overconfidence may just be Team USA’s greatest adversary.

2.    Will Canada rebound?

Leave it to the Canadians to deem a silver medal an offense subject to termination for the head coach, as following the World Championships, Boris Rybalka was handed the reins after Russ Herrington stepped aside. Rybalka had been with the Canadian Para ice hockey programme for some time, most notably as an assistant under Herrington during Canada’s 2024 World Championships triumph.

Furthermore, legend Greg Westlake came out of retirement to rejoin the red and white. Canada’s second all-time leading scorer not only brings his mythic scoring touch, but also his extensive experience, as this will be the sixth Paralympic competition of a career that began in 2006, when Canada last stood on the top step of the podium.

The changes address real needs. They should help bring a new dynamic to the locker room, as well as some much-needed scoring depth, as undoubtedly, the Great White North lacked offensive punch beyond the Dominic Cozzolino-Tyler McGregor duo in the later stages of the 2025 World Championships.

The sum of these decisions also sent a clear signal that the maple-leafed delegation is not interested in being silver medallists for very long. This squad heads to Milano Cortina 2026 clearly having the USA in their sights, but while Team Canada played the Worlds with great respect for their southern rival, this approach feels different. 

Rather than gingerly complying with the rankings, the Canadians are silently rejecting the idea of any country’s divine right to any medal, including their own, and taking a page out of Dan Lanning’s book with a: “They play for clicks; we play for wins” attitude.

But in sport, deeds count more than words, particularly those executed during practice sessions, far from the bright lights, when no one other than coaches and teammates are watching. 
The Milanese ice will reveal how much action was pushed into motion.

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Get ready to experience all the excitement of #ParaIceHockey!

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— Paralympic Games (@Paralympics) March 7, 2026

 

3.    How many more miracles remain for Team Germany?

Germany’s road to Milano Cortina is a story arc etched in perseverance and self-belief.

In 2024, after luring a new head coach from the Norwegian programme in Ole Thomas Sundstoel, the Deutschland delegation caused the biggest surprise of the B-Pool Championship by making it all the way to the finals, ultimately losing to Norway.

But a promotion to the A-pool came with the silver medal, a welcomed gift in the rare year when the A-Pool Worlds would decide five of eight Paralympic spots. If nothing else, Germans truly run on schedule.

Fast forward to Buffalo and the 2025 competition began poorly, with Germany being outscored 19-0 in their first two games and looking every bit the part of a team which hadn’t participated in the Paralympics in 20 years. 

But then, an upset victory over Korea. And that’s when it happened. The players began to believe.

One victory. It’s all it took. All they needed to realise that they belonged in this group, that they could compete in it, that the ice was as much theirs as anybody else’s. 

Sitting outside the medal round, the Germans were now locked in a four-team playoff for 5th place, the last one guaranteeing a spot in Milano Cortina. Win the next two games, and you will forever be a Paralympian.

It sounds simple.

But nothing ever is. Because to play for Germany is to be reminded your country hasn’t skated in the international dance in 20 years. Because they got to Buffalo in spite of losing the B-pool, not by winning it. Because their first game would be against Team Norway, the same Team Norway that had deprived them of a championships months earlier, and that was just as intent on winning their way to Italy as they were.

The German response? Their best game yet. A 3-1 victory in a hard-fought match that solidified the feeling that it wasn’t just luck; they were now one win away from fulfilling the dream and had earned the privilege.

And with that newfound boldness, the players pulled their jerseys over their heads one more time and headed out the tunnel to face off against Slovakia, a programme with a history of upset victories of their own. 

What could Team Germany, if anything, then do for an encore? Play an even greater game. A 5-2 victory over their Slavic counterparts, completing a two-game qualification tour de force in which they never trailed their opponents.

Twenty years of frustration no more, all of it evaporated in an instant. German Para ice hockey was back in the Paralympics, and while the remaining unqualified teams would be in Jessheim battling it out for the last spots, they would be at home, preparing, knowing they would enter the stadium during the opening ceremonies with something more than hope. Conviction.

So now, with an additional nine months of preparation, can the Germans perform another little miracle and reach further? 

4.    Can Czechia win their first medal?

In 2022 at the Winter Paralympics in Beijing, Czechia finished the tournament with a sixt place, losing to Team China in a quarterfinal heartbreaker. Indeed, the Czechs had managed to mount a two-goal third period comeback, only to learn the hosts had one more goal in them, when they successfully sneaked a puck past goaltender Martin Kudela with less than two minutes remaining on the clock, cementing the Chinese victory.

In a theatrical display of refusal to be defined by a setback, the CZ delegates used the disappointment as incentive, marching their way to bronze medal victories in the next three straight World Championships, including a dramatic overtime win in 2025.

But while the progress in the results has been undeniable, forward Vaclav Heczko was also transparent following their latest triumph: “Every year, it’s getting harder and harder to stay in the bronze medal game, so next year, we will have to prepare a little bit more.”

Veteran athlete that he is, even in achievement, he can see the dangers in complacency. And with respect to the field, his concern is justified.

When speaking about their opponent after that 2025 game, Team Czechia head coach Jakub Novotny was quick to highlight the quality play of the Chinese: “It was a battle,” he said, before adding: “It wasn’t a game, it was more like a battle against Team China, they put us under a lot of pressure, and we played very well. I’m proud that we overcame that to get to the win. We knew that China would have the speed, [that] they would be much faster than us. We could see that in their attacks; they turn over the game very fast.”

It would appear the 2026 contest then comes as teams are at a crossroads.

On the one hand, it would be easy to deduce that if the Czechs have done it thrice, then a fourth is within reach, almost a formality. But the quotes tell another story, as the squad wasn’t just displaying good sportsmanship in victory, there was a recognition that the field had not only caught up to them but was in some facets equal or better. 

This makes Heczko’s claim to elevate their preparatory efforts in the hopes of medalling all the more important. Have the Czechs properly used the last nine months to accomplish what no other countrymen of theirs ever have before?

The ice will tell, and in a twist of scheduling faith, any potential matchup between China and Czechia would take place in the playoff rounds. Chaos is the only certainty here. Expect the unexpected.

5.    Which team carries the most pressure?

A lengthy list of candidates, to be sure, but more importantly, pressure is distributed unevenly.

With the success of the United States men’s and women’s hockey team at the Olympics, the pressure will be on the USA to complete the first-ever golden hat-trick. That pressure will only be compounded by their previous success, as making a country of 340 million fall short of a threepeat, while they were going for their fifth straight gold medal, would leave a scar far deeper than any 2024 result ever could. 

Their neighbours to the north will also be feeling the weight of a nation’s expectations, especially after both Canadian Olympic hockey teams lost their respective finals by identical 2-1 overtime scores to the red, white, and blue. The possibility for a third such disappointment is quite realistic, but also a fate far too cruel for 40 million hockey-loving souls to bear. The pressure will therefore be immense, even if the Canadian squad would enter as the underdog. Perhaps then, those earlier changes will prove more astute than anyone had previously envisioned.

The Czechs and Chinese are seeking to settle a matter four years in the making, inside a mournful reality that there are only three medals. If logic tells us that the United States and Canada should earn two, then there sadly aren’t enough medal colours for everyone who desires one. Mix in Germany, and while unfortunate, perhaps even unfair, but also as a paramount part of what makes the competition so magical, at least one team will be returning home uncrowned after having offered a medal worthy performance. 

Pressure creates diamonds, sometimes even the metaphorical kind you wear around your neck.

Last official training before @milanocortina26 kicks off. @Paralympics pic.twitter.com/LZJ8APMQy0

— Para Ice Hockey (@paraicehockey) March 6, 2026

 

6.    What team is most likely to cause a surprise?

Team Slovakia strikes one as an easy squad to dismiss, but to do so is to disregard the redemption arc they have been on since the Qualification Tournament. Their loss in Buffalo to the Germans meant they had to travel to Jessheim to fight it out for one of the last two spots.

The event began with disappointment, a 3-2 defeat to Team Japan in what should have been one of Slovakia’s most accessible victories. The loss closed off all but one road to Italy, the one which required them to win out the remainder of the schedule, including two pivotal and challenging games against Korea and Norway. 

But to doubt the pride and resolve of a Slovak delegation is an exercise in foolishness, as winning those matchups is exactly what they did, the last one coming on the final day against Korea, in a winner-take-all showdown.

That final result positions this team on the upswing after having lost a pair of critical games. It also allows them to enter the opening ceremonies with little to no pressure on them, as while the spotlights will heavily be on the North American athletes, the Heart of Europe will subtly have a unified and field-hardened group of players, and a tight-knit team is a formidable one.

7.    Which MVP-worthy performance could create the biggest upset?

To cause an upset means the performance cannot come from a favourite. So, whether it be Declan Farmer, Tyler McGregor, Brody Roybal, Dominic Cozzolino or Jack Wallace and company from the North American delegations, by definition of the question, we cannot do as Captain Louis Renault in Casablanca and “Round up the usual suspects”. We must look elsewhere.

Czech goaltender Patrik Sedlacek would be a wise place to start. His masterpiece performance in the 2025 bronze medal game swung the contest in his team’s favour, and his still-vivid paddle save on a third-period breakaway was not only the save of the game, but quite literally of the tournament. If not for that moment, the Chinese would have been the team departing from Buffalo celebrating their bronzed conquest.

Which brings us to Team China and forward Jin Tao Tian.

The silent assassin. The world’s most dangerous penalty killer.

The sport of ice hockey has long celebrated forwards that excelled at preventing their opponents from scoring. But Tian? Tian was carved in a different mould altogether.

For one, Tian’s offensive contribution is all about finding the mesh. At the 2025 World Championships, he scored seven goals in five games, producing a 41.18% shooting percentage while averaging more than three shots per game. Only two players would manage to do better.

But even more than that, how Tian plays is what makes him worthy of the price of admission. He may be the sport’s fastest player in a straight line, and he moulds his game accordingly, especially while on the penalty kill. In that situation, he will take away the middle of the ice, force the play to the outside, and patiently wait for a turnover. And as soon as a teammate completes the takeaway, Tian is off like a new idea in the right room, using his mental GPS to find the shortest route and speed towards the opponent’s net, only interested in catching the long breakaway pass from his countrymate while in full stride.

The level of excitement this brand of penalty killing creates makes fans in attendance wait with anticipation at seeing the Chinese four-man unit execute its magic, even creating games where Team China is offensively more dangerous with four players on the ice than with five. 

It may confound logic and defy what coaches enjoy preaching in their pre-game speeches, but it makes for exhilarating hockey, not just for the thrill of the moment, but because of the recognition that a shorthanded goal can swing an entire game, and on the right night, an entire tournament.

Team Slovakia captain Martin Joppa will be another player to keep an eye on. The heartbeat of his squad and an athlete with an unquestionable ability to raise his performance when the stakes require it, his steady play will be one of the core reasons any game ends with a celebration in the Slovak dressing room. 

Such was the case at the 2025 World Championships, when the Slovakia versus Korea game went to overtime. The Koreans began the extra frame by taking control of the action, pushing the Slavic squad into a desperate situation, needing one of its top players to rise to the occasion.

What came next made it seem as if it would have been wise to invite Joppa into the chat sooner.

Because after stepping on the ice for an offensive zone face-off, he grabbed the puck, skated past one defender, then around another, before finally shooting the puck underneath the goaltender’s arm, all the way to the back of the net. Overtime heroics from the captain, pulling the rest of his team onward and into the next game.

Fictional tales of time travel have a way of focusing on key events, regardless of whether they be of historical proportions for a species or merely pivotal in the lives of the protagonists. And while they do offer the cinematic moments movie studios look to present in two hours of screening time, they do deprive us of an element of enjoyment. 

Simply, the joy of the unknown, of consuming answers as they are being created.

To watch a sporting event is to hope and anticipate without ever benefiting from the comfort of certainty. All our answers are responded to in real time. Did the player complete his pass? Did the goaltender make the save? And when the stakes become high enough, questions are no longer asked from the stands, but rather from the ice itself. For it is when the game itself demands answers that cannot be avoided, that we have the cinematic results that echo into eternity. Onwards? Onwards.